Good Evening! Well it was another gorgeous day today across the Tri-Counties with temperatures in the 20's, Shelburne being the hot spot at 26 degrees.
Almanac today, 22 it hit in Yarmouth, the Average is 19 for this time of year. back in 1973 it was a hot 28*C, our low this morning was 14, average is 12, and back in '75 it was a chilly start to the morning at only 5 degrees.
Currently in Yarmouth @ 11pm, it is cooling down! now down to 15 degrees, a dew point of 13, winds from the NW at 13km/h and a high pressure of 1022mb.
Taking a look at tonight's hourly forecast, temperatures continue to cool as we get through the night with temperatures down into the lower-10's, under clear skies. Sunny skies to wake up tomorrow morning at 6am and a cool 10 degrees, we'll warm up nicely to 14 by 9am and into the 20's by noon tomorrow.
An area of High pressure will settle over the Atlantic provinces through Monday to bring us continued sunshine and warmth for remainder of the long weekend. Clouds will creep in Monday afternoon and evening ahead of a weak cold front that will bring rain into the area late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon, some areas of the Tri-Counties will get a beneficial rainfall too!
Rain will arrive in Digby and Yarmouth county near Midnight tomorrow night and will move very slowly! in fact, by 6am Tuesday morning, it is still raining moderately over Digby and Yarmouth while Shelburne sees drizzle. By noon Monday, The heavier rain moves into Shelburne and continues to rain quite heavily for Yarmouth while Digby sees more showers and light rain. By 6pm Monday night, Most of the rain is offshore, however some drizzle and light showers left over in Yarmouth and Shelburne, but Digby is done with the front, and everyone is done with the rain by 11pm.
So how much rain can we expect from Monday Night through Tuesday night? a wide swath of 5-15mm, however there will be some locations that will see amounts of 15 to 25mm.
Sporadic showers look to linger into Wednesday and Thursday of next week for the first day of school, with risk of T-storms. Temperatures cool down to near seasonal with highs dropping below 20-degrees.
Dorian a very dangerous Hurricane heading for the Bahamas!
As of 11pm Atlantic time, Dorian remains a Category 4 Hurricane with winds of 150 M.P.H or 241 km/h with Gusts of 296 km/h! Dorian is moving West towards the Bahamas and will make landfall near Marsh Harbor tomorrow afternoon as a very strong Category 4 hurricane with winds of 240 km/h and higher gusts to near 300 km/h.
A big ridge of High pressure is what helping steer Dorian to the West and will steer him to the NE Monday, helping it miss Florida and near the Carolinas by Thursday.
Hurricane warnings are up for the entire Bahamas and a Tropical Storm watch is issued for parts of Eastern Florida.
It is still way to soon to say and tell what Dorian may do here closer to home, but many models are suggesting it will stay just enough offshore as a strong hurricane, We will be watching this very closely!
Good Evening! Was a cold one today, with on and off snow squalls. But now as the evening goes on, we are seeing clearing skies according to radar and satellite and much of the flurries and squalls that remain are now over mainland Nova Scotia and even those are beginning to taper off. As temperatures drop and skies get dark we’ll see the chance of flurries diminish.
In fact FutureCAST shows that any flurries that occur on the coast late this evening will diminish overnight tonight, and high pressure takes over to bring us gorgeous sunshine for tomorrow, Saturday and even much of Sunday will be dry, however we will see more clouds Sunday with a chance of showers in the late afternoon hours.
That system on Sunday is a fast moving system currently over the 4 corner states. This system will develop rapidly over next 48 hours as it intensifies over the jet stream.
Timing of that system:
Sunday 8pm: Rain or Rain/snow mix beginning on the coast, a few flurries inland.
11pm: Rain spreads into all of the Tri-counties.
Monday 2am: Rain continues..
Monday 5am: Rain continues, begins to be a lighter intensity as the system moves farther away.
Monday 8am: Rain tapers to showers.
Monday 11am: Clearing skies.
How much rainfall?
As of now, looks like between 10 and 20mm.
Now, not only will see some rain and snow/mix, but one of the biggest threats is the winds! We are looking at wind gusts reaching in excess of 90 to 110km/h Sunday night into Monday.
Forecast wind Gusts:
Sunday 2pm: Yarmouth: 56km/h, Digby: 36km/h, Shelburne: 46 km/h
Sunday 5pm: Yarmouth: 60km/h, Digby: 39km/h, Shelburne: 52km/h
Sunday 8pm: Yarmouth: 65km/h, Digby: 45km/h, Shelburne: 58km/h
Sunday 11pm: Yarmouth: 81km/h, Digby: 80km/h, Shelburne: 68km/h
Monday 2am: Yarmouth: 89km/h, Digby: 97km/h, Shelburne: 90km/h
Monday 5am: Yarmouth: 61km/h, Digby: 75km/h, Shelburne: 81km/h
Monday 8am: Yarmouth: 50km/h, Digby: 46km/h, Shelburne: 56km/h
So Winds become to be quite Gusty by Sunday afternoon but will be at it’s strongest Sunday late evening and overnight into Monday ( 11pm-2am) where winds will Gusts between 90 and 110km/h, highest along the coast.
Biggest threats with this storm is the slick roads, and high winds! Very little threat of snow and ice.
After our Sunday Night storm, we are dry Monday afternoon before our next system arrives Monday night into Tuesday. And then more nice weather Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will be more warmer next week also! With many days reaching between 4 and 8 degrees, even warmer by the end of next week into next weekend! With temperatures likely reaching mid-teens!
~ Chief Forecaster James
Many of us in the south west shores of NS continue to be dealing with a drought situation, where still many wells are dry! and yet here we are in November, and still not enough rain to fill it up! and if we don't get any big boost in the well water height when the winter hits with snow and ice, It will just cause even more trouble.
And lately the weather pattern features dry and mild weather through the first week of November. However as we head into Mid-late November, the weather pattern looks to become more unsettled and stormy.
There is a storm that needs to bare watching for not this weekend, but next weekend! around Sunday morning and continuing through Monday afternoon. As of now it does look like a good rain soaker, with 1-2" (25-50mm) likely by Monday the 14th. Along with the rain, is the strong gusty winds that will blow from SW @ 20-40knots, with higher gusts.The storm will also bring warm moist tropical air... highs on Sunday and Monday (13-14) will be in the 50's*F! (lower 10's) and continue into Monday. a few days later, another potential storm for the 17-18th, this will bring another round of heavy rain and wind.
temps then on that storm will push likely record highs, with temps in the mid and upper 60's!! (18-20*C) and possibly flirting with 70 (21*C) if there is enough clearing in the afternoon.
with Both storms in 1 week, that will bring total rainfall of up to nearly 4-5" (100-130mm)
Here is the Timing of the storm for NEXT weekend (Sunday 13th)
Storm is a slow mover, so clouds will stick around Friday of next week into Saturday, then showers developing on Sunday morning and intensifying in the late morning and early afternoon of Sunday before tapering to showers Sunday evening into Monday. So how much rain from this storm?
Between 1 and 2 inches (25-50mm) with highest rainfall Yarmouth-Digby. Then If we add the other storm... total amounts up to the 20th will be 4-5" (100-130mm) so both storms will deliver around 50-80mm of rain, this rain is badly needed!
Now how about those winds??
Winds offshore will be a good 30-40knots, on land 20-30knots, then as storm moves inland south of Cape Cod, winds over sw nova scotia will be sustained 25-35knots, with higher gusts.. these winds are near tropical storm, and so some small minimal damage, power outages and flash,coastal flooding is likely.
Here is the latest GFS model of what the storm will look like on Sunday afternoon of the 13th.. notice that hurricane like swirl... this indicates a very well deepen storm.
Now how about the winter??? I been getting a lot of questions on what the winter is going to do..
and I came to a conclusion right now that the Snowy and colder winter that many have been forecasting, may not be so..
I have looked at several Climate models from CFS, CanSIPS and NMME along with the current local weather pattern from 300,500 & 850mb levels.
Many models show that we will have a rather normal to slightly above normal winter in terms of Temperature. With the coldest being in February with temps near or slightly above normal. December and January will feature temps of 1-2 degrees above normal, with February at Normal to perhaps a half degree above normal in Shelburne. March and April will be Normal to a tad above normal and by May, we look at big warm up with temps then about 1-2 degrees above normal and this continues all way into August, so does look like another hot spring and summer next year!
Now despite the temps of 1-2 degrees above normal in Dec-Jan, that does not mean, we will see no snow, in fact even at 1-2 degrees above normal, big amounts of snow can fall. and in fact December is forecast to be rather stormier and wet according to the climate models. where December will likely bring 1-3" above normal precipitation, which with temps near normal to slightly above normal, I would not be surprised to see a bit more snow than last year. January looks to be a little drier, where a few thaws will happen. but a few snow storms is possible. February, the month that is forecast to be the coldest will also be the Normal snowfall and rainfall, so I don't expect a lot of storms, but some snow systems from time to time. March looks to better than normal by a inch or so, normal to slightly above normal in April and May is to be near normal to slightly wetter than normal, June looks to be wetter than normal by a inch or so above normal then by July, August plan on drier pattern where a drought situation may return.. with August being the worst.
So I am forecasting a more snowier and colder winter than last year.. BUT overall a near normal winter typical for our area.
For snow day lovers... here is how many snow days, (no school due to snow) I am forecasting.. slightly higher then last year and lower than previous years which was around 8-10.
Snow day forecast:
November: 0 days
December: 1 day
January: 1-2 days
February: 2-3 days
March: 0-1 days
April: 0-1 days
Total: 4-8 snow days this year.
This year I am forecasting only 4-8 snow days. with the most in February.
Otherwise in near future of the forecast.. lot's of dry weather this week, some spotty showers tomorrow night, only 2-4mm. temps this week will be around 8-12 degrees, with cold frosty mornings.
After several months of mild temps, lack of snow and more rain than ever... and 1 week left until the official start to Spring, Can we finally ask ourselves, can we stick a fork in her or what??? Today's highs managed near 10 degrees once again and with gorgeous sunshine, warm SW winds that breezed up to 75km/h at times.. and Boston seeing there temps near 20 again it makes us feel yup! spring is here! But woaaa horsey! not so fast! Lot's of El ninos had brought blizzards at the end of march and even April. remember 1991?? we had that April fool's blizzard that brought over 2ft of snow! Now the climate models show us warming up more and more, but in short-medium range forecast... there still some cold air and possible snow to contend with so No I don't think we can put a fork in her and call her finish right yet!
We got winter like cold tonight, temps in the mid and upper -5's
Tomorrow will feel more normal than it was today's above average temps.
We have sunshine again tomorrow as this H pressure continues to block the storm southward. H pressure will finally weaken over the day tomorrow and allow the large system, a warm front to arrive Tuesday, starting as clouds and then developing showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder late Tuesday afternoon and evening and ending Wednesday. Some areas could pick up a good inch of water from this system. It is a warm front, so do plan on milder temps! in fact I forecasting temps in lower and mid 10's.
Now next week is something to watch for...
GFS models continue to have thoughts on a big coastal storm forming down in SE states late week and arrive here for Sunday night into Monday and continue through Monday Night.
As of now it is still early to determine the exact track and forecast, but as of now looks like it will stay well far west of us, this will mean we be on the warmer end of the storm, LOT'S of rain!! GFS model has been suggesting for a long time now, that 3-6" of rain will fall.. (75-150mm) Winds will also be strong! from the S-SE at 30-40 knots ( 55-75km/h) to GUSTS of near 50-60+knots, (90-100+km/h). Pressure also will be very low! If you were to take a Barometer and read the numbers, if the pressure was 960mb, the needle will be nearly off the chart, and as low as it can go! which is on the word stormy. Still lot's of time to watch this play out, in mean time enjoy another day of sunshine!.
~Chief Amateur Meteorologist James