Many of us in the south west shores of NS continue to be dealing with a drought situation, where still many wells are dry! and yet here we are in November, and still not enough rain to fill it up! and if we don't get any big boost in the well water height when the winter hits with snow and ice, It will just cause even more trouble. And lately the weather pattern features dry and mild weather through the first week of November. However as we head into Mid-late November, the weather pattern looks to become more unsettled and stormy. There is a storm that needs to bare watching for not this weekend, but next weekend! around Sunday morning and continuing through Monday afternoon. As of now it does look like a good rain soaker, with 1-2" (25-50mm) likely by Monday the 14th. Along with the rain, is the strong gusty winds that will blow from SW @ 20-40knots, with higher gusts.The storm will also bring warm moist tropical air... highs on Sunday and Monday (13-14) will be in the 50's*F! (lower 10's) and continue into Monday. a few days later, another potential storm for the 17-18th, this will bring another round of heavy rain and wind. temps then on that storm will push likely record highs, with temps in the mid and upper 60's!! (18-20*C) and possibly flirting with 70 (21*C) if there is enough clearing in the afternoon. with Both storms in 1 week, that will bring total rainfall of up to nearly 4-5" (100-130mm) Here is the Timing of the storm for NEXT weekend (Sunday 13th) Storm is a slow mover, so clouds will stick around Friday of next week into Saturday, then showers developing on Sunday morning and intensifying in the late morning and early afternoon of Sunday before tapering to showers Sunday evening into Monday. So how much rain from this storm? Between 1 and 2 inches (25-50mm) with highest rainfall Yarmouth-Digby. Then If we add the other storm... total amounts up to the 20th will be 4-5" (100-130mm) so both storms will deliver around 50-80mm of rain, this rain is badly needed! Now how about those winds?? Winds offshore will be a good 30-40knots, on land 20-30knots, then as storm moves inland south of Cape Cod, winds over sw nova scotia will be sustained 25-35knots, with higher gusts.. these winds are near tropical storm, and so some small minimal damage, power outages and flash,coastal flooding is likely. Here is the latest GFS model of what the storm will look like on Sunday afternoon of the 13th.. notice that hurricane like swirl... this indicates a very well deepen storm.
Now how about the winter??? I been getting a lot of questions on what the winter is going to do.. and I came to a conclusion right now that the Snowy and colder winter that many have been forecasting, may not be so.. I have looked at several Climate models from CFS, CanSIPS and NMME along with the current local weather pattern from 300,500 & 850mb levels. Many models show that we will have a rather normal to slightly above normal winter in terms of Temperature. With the coldest being in February with temps near or slightly above normal. December and January will feature temps of 1-2 degrees above normal, with February at Normal to perhaps a half degree above normal in Shelburne. March and April will be Normal to a tad above normal and by May, we look at big warm up with temps then about 1-2 degrees above normal and this continues all way into August, so does look like another hot spring and summer next year! Now despite the temps of 1-2 degrees above normal in Dec-Jan, that does not mean, we will see no snow, in fact even at 1-2 degrees above normal, big amounts of snow can fall. and in fact December is forecast to be rather stormier and wet according to the climate models. where December will likely bring 1-3" above normal precipitation, which with temps near normal to slightly above normal, I would not be surprised to see a bit more snow than last year. January looks to be a little drier, where a few thaws will happen. but a few snow storms is possible. February, the month that is forecast to be the coldest will also be the Normal snowfall and rainfall, so I don't expect a lot of storms, but some snow systems from time to time. March looks to better than normal by a inch or so, normal to slightly above normal in April and May is to be near normal to slightly wetter than normal, June looks to be wetter than normal by a inch or so above normal then by July, August plan on drier pattern where a drought situation may return.. with August being the worst. So I am forecasting a more snowier and colder winter than last year.. BUT overall a near normal winter typical for our area. For snow day lovers... here is how many snow days, (no school due to snow) I am forecasting.. slightly higher then last year and lower than previous years which was around 8-10. Snow day forecast: November: 0 days December: 1 day January: 1-2 days February: 2-3 days March: 0-1 days April: 0-1 days Total: 4-8 snow days this year. This year I am forecasting only 4-8 snow days. with the most in February. Otherwise in near future of the forecast.. lot's of dry weather this week, some spotty showers tomorrow night, only 2-4mm. temps this week will be around 8-12 degrees, with cold frosty mornings. ~J.F |
AuthorChief Forecaster for TCWS M-F @ 5p, 6p, 7pm,10p & 11pm. Also a Chief Meteorologist for CHMR 93.5 FM in St. John's. Archives
August 2019
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