TCWS 11pm Evening update:
In this Update:
* Latest on Dorian & the track
* Dorian potential threat for here in the Tri-Counties
* Invest 91,92 & 93-L
* Timing and amounts of the rainfall for tonight into tomorrow
* Sneak peak at Thursday’s back to school forecast
* 7 day forecasts
DORIAN, TRACK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE TRI-COUNTIES:
Dorian as of 8pm:
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
Dorian is still a very dangerous storm that continues to pound the Grand Bahama Island as a Category 4 hurricane.
Dorian remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery.
Recent radar and aircraft observations are again showing signs of
a concentric eyewall structure which might be one of the factors
that has led to a decrease in the peak winds and a small expansion
of the wind field. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported peak flight-level winds of 129 kt, SFMR winds of 121
kt, and a central pressure that has risen to 940 mb. Based on these
observations, the initial wind speed has been set at 125 kt. Some
additional decrease in wind speed is likely in the short term due
due to a possible eyewall replacement and upwelling of cooler
waters caused by the very slow motion of the hurricane. Although
some additional slow weakening is forecast while the hurricane moves
northward along the southeastern United States coastline due to
increasing southwesterly shear, Dorian is forecast to remain a
powerful hurricane during that time.
Dorian has become nearly stationary this afternoon with the two most
recent aircraft fixes showing essentially no motion. A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion should resume overnight and
continue into early Tuesday, with the eye and devastating winds only
slowly pulling away from Grand Bahama Island. By Tuesday afternoon,
Dorian should begin its much anticipated northwestward turn as a
weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge. Although
the center of Dorian is forecast to move near, but parallel to, the
Florida east coast, only a small deviation of the track toward the
west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore. A broad mid-
latitude trough should help turn Dorian northeastward by Wednesday
night, and the track models show the center coming precariously
close to the southeastern United States coast. The tracks from the
1200 UTC runs of the global models have remained fairly stable.
It should then enter the Maritimes by Saturday morning, with the Tropical Storm force winds as early as Friday evening. The ECMWF, ICON, UKMO & GFS models have the storm just offshore, but very close to the province of Nova Scotia, while the GEM and few other models have it far offshore, the consensus is that Dorian will parallel Southern Nova Scotia on Saturday morning or afternoon, and for this update the TCWS will be going with the model consensus of the ECMWF,UKMO & ACCESS-G models, that put the storm offshore very dangerously close to land, then making landfall somewhere in Cape Breton by Saturday night or Sunday morning.
DORIAN RAINFALL TRI-COUNTY FORECAST: ECMWF MODEL
- 3am: Light showers or drizzle begin in Yarmouth & Shelburne county
- 6am: Rain becomes heavier in Yarmouth and Shelburne with rain rates of 7-10mm/3hr, Digby to Halifax begins to see showers and drizzle.
- 9am: Moderate to heavy rain begins to cover all 3 Tri-counties
- Noon: Pockets of very heavy rain begins to move in the Yarmouth area.
- 3pm to 9pm: Heaviest torrential rains arrive for all of the Tri-Counties with Shelburne the hardest hit, rain rates from 3pm to 9pm Saturday will be 40-80+mm/hr.
- 9pm: heaviest rain pushes into Northern NS, rain tapers to showers inland of the Tri-Counties, and drizzle and showers for Yarmouth.
- Midnight: Rain clears out.
Total rainfall from 3am Saturday to midnight:
Yarmouth County: 100-125mm
Shelburne County: 115-180mm
Digby County: 80-100mm
Storm Surge of 5 to 10 meters above normal, and as much as 15 meters offshore,combined with 100+mm of rain will create serious flooding problems and beach erosion.
DORIAN WIND TRI-COUNTY FORECAST:
6am: NE Sustained winds of 20-30km/h inland, 30-55 km/h on coast. Gusts of 50km/h inland, 70km/h on coast. ( Tropical Storm Force)
9am: NE Sustained winds of 30km/h inland, 40-60km/h on coast, Gusts of 60 km/h inland, Gust to 70-90km/h on coast. ( Tropical Storm Force)
Noon: NE sustained 40km/h inland, 60-70km/h coast with Gusts of 70-90km/h inland, and 90-105 km/h on coast. ( Tropical Storm Force)
3pm: N Sustained winds of 40-50km/h inland, 60-80km/h Inland. Gusts of 80-100km/h in Yarmouth & Digby, except 100+ on the coast. Shelburne inland Gusts 110-130km/h, except up to 150km/h on the coast. ( Hurricane Force)
6pm: N Sustained winds of 40-60km/h, Gusts of 80-110km/h in Yarmouth, Digby county. And 110-140km/h in Shelburne. (Tropical Storm Force) to (Hurricane Force) in Shelburne.
9pm: NW Sustained winds of 30-40km/h, except 50-60km/h on the coast. Gusts of 80-100km/h, except 110+ over Northern Shelburne. (Tropical Storm Force)
Midnight: NW Sustained winds of 20-30km/h except up to 40km/h on the coast. Gusts of 60-80km/h, except near 90km/h on extreme southern coast sections. (Tropical Storm Force)
3am: W Sustained winds of 10-20km/h with Gusts of 30-50km/h, except up to 60km/h on extreme southern coastal sections. ( Tropical Depression Force)
Worst of the storm for Rain, Wind & Storm Surge combined will be between the hours of 3pm and 9pm Saturday Evening.
Although the hurricane will track offshore, it’s Tropical Storm force Wind field will stretch far over the province and perhaps southern NB! Tropical Storm Force conditions are:
63 to 118 km/h Wind speeds (sustained or Gusts)
Hurricane Dorian will be a Strong Category 1 or a weak Category 2 Hurricane when it reaches it’s closest approach to Southern shores.
Category 1 winds are 120-153km/h
Category 2 winds are 154-177km/h
Dorian is expected to be having winds of 140 km/h sustained, with higher gusts to near 200km/h offshore. When it is near Shelburne.
It is very highly likely that Hurricane Force Sustained And GUSTS will approach the Tri-Counties Saturday evening as a Category 1.
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
If in the case, the storm comes closer and is a Category 2…
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
With all this in mind.. many people look back at Arthur, What is the difference between Arthur and Dorian?
Arthur: Was a post tropical Storm when it tracked in the Bay of Fundy
Dorian: Will pass offshore very close to Shelburne, as a extra- Tropical Hurricane or a full blown Hurricane with 85 mph winds.
The track is very similar to Arthur, except it will stay offshore to the East instead of Bay of Fundy like Arthur did.
This storm will be stronger compared to Arthur, and we very highly recommend that people prepare for this storm!
There have only been 2 storms at category 2 strength that made landfall in NS, one is Juan that hit Halifax as a Cat 2 in 2003 with 100mph winds.
But Ginny of ‘63 was a 110 mph hurricane when it made landfall in Yarmouth just a day before Halloween! That storm was only 1mph away from being classified a Category 3.
Now Dorian is not the only system we are currently monitoring.. there is 3 others!
Invest 91, 92 & 93-L.
Invest 91-L: An elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although this system is currently
producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression
is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Next name on the list is Fernand
Invest 92-L: A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of the disturbance is
possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Invest 93-L: An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms continues in
association with an area of low pressure located over the
south-central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next few days while the low moves
slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Next name after Fernand is Gabrielle
None of these systems pose a threat to us here in Canada!
Now closer to home in the near future, We do have some rain coming our way!
A weak cold front is going to bring some rain to the Tri-Counties tonight into tomorrow.
As of 10:30pm, some rain showers and drizzle are already approaching the Tri-Counties, this line of rain showers will progress through tonight, becoming a bit heavy at times with some embedded thunder-showers, Rain will begin to taper off tomorrow Afternoon.
How much rain? Well not to much! 3 to 6mm, however there will be some pockets of heavier downpours that will bring rain amounts to 15 or more mm.
Clears out for Wednesday with gorgeous sunshine and temperatures back into the low and mid-20’s!
Back to school Thursday!!!
Here is a sneak peak at what you can expect on Thursday as you head back to school.
7am: Mostly cloudy skies and 17*C
Noon: Partly Sunny skies and 18*C
3pm: Partly Sunny skies and 20*C
For Tonight: Showers, Drizzle and Fog with heavier showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Winds SE 15-30km/h. lows near 15.
Tomorrow: Showers tapering off near noon then partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs of 21 to 24 degrees, cooler on the coast. Winds SE 20 km/h.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly clear skies, winds becoming light and lows of 12 to 14 degrees.
Here now is your 7 day forecast!
Tuesday: Showers and 21*
Wednesday: Sunshine and few clouds, 25*
Thursday: Partly cloudy skies and 20*
Friday: Mostly Sunny skies and 20*
Saturday: Watching Dorian! Heavy rain, and strong winds. Highs of 13, temperatures falling to 12 in the afternoon.
Sunday: Sunny skies and mild. Highs of 17*
Monday: Sunny skies and cool. Highs of 15*
For Yarmouth county:
Tuesday: Showers and 23*
Wednesday: Sunny skies and 24*
Thursday: Partly sunny and 21*
Friday: Mostly Sunny and 20*
Saturday: Dorian! Heavy rain and very strong winds! Highs of 14, but falling to 12 in the afternoon.
Sunday & Monday: Sunshine and highs of 17-18*
Tuesday: Showers and 24*
Wednesday through Friday, sunny skies with more clouds on Thursday. Highs of 24 Wednesday, 22 on Thursday and 20 on Friday.
Saturday is Dorian, Hurricane force winds, and very heavy rains. Highs of 16 but falling to 14 in the afternoon.
Sunday & Monday is sunny skies and comfortable temps of 18 to around 20.